Platform: Polymarket
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Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Putin, aged 73, holds firm control over Russia’s personalist authoritarian system following his 2024 reelection and 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits, enabling potential service until 2036 with the next presidential vote scheduled for 2030. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to an exit by late 2026 or mid-2027 due to the absence of designated…
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Will Tom Dyas win the 2026 Kelowna mayoral election?
The Kelowna mayoral race remains tightly contested ahead of the October 17, 2026, vote, with trader pricing reflecting a narrow edge for incumbent Tom Dyas at 52.5% alongside Ron Cannan at 36% and Emily Salsbury at 7%. Dyas’s late-July confirmation of a re-election bid, emphasizing continuity on city growth and services, directly counters Cannan’s June…
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Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden’s September 13 general election is approaching with consistent polling showing the Social Democrat-led centre-left opposition bloc ahead of the incumbent centre-right Tidö government by roughly eight points. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, polling near 32-34 percent as the largest party, anchor this lead and position her to lead coalition negotiations if the result holds. Trader…
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Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?
Russian forces continue limited offensive operations in the Orikhiv sector of western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, advancing from the south and attempting infiltration and glide-bomb strikes from the east near Hulyaipole to shape conditions for future assaults on the town and nearby heights. Ukrainian units have conducted counterattacks that recaptured positions west and southwest of Orikhiv in…
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Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in August 2026?
Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X drives the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around the 800–879 tweet range for August 2026, reflecting traders’ reading of his consistent 20–30 daily output amid platform ownership and real-time commentary demands. Recent weekly brackets show 160-plus posts over seven-day stretches, with spikes like 41 tweets in a single…
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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
US military operations against Iran began on February 28, 2026, with joint strikes alongside Israel that targeted military sites, nuclear facilities, and leadership, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Despite months of sustained conflict, missile exchanges, and involvement in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Congress has not passed a formal declaration of war,…
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Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…
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Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?
Ulises Mejía Haro leads early polling for the Morena nomination at around 45% support, ahead of Verónica Díaz Robles and a crowded field of other aspirants including Alfonso Ramírez Cuéllar. Zacatecas remains a Morena stronghold following the party’s prior victories, so internal party dynamics and coalition negotiations with partners such as the Green Party largely…