Platform: Polymarket
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Iran leadership change by August 22?
Iran’s Supreme Leader succession unfolded rapidly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March following an interim tripartite council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian. Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile since taking office, with state media…
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Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
Persistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year and a divided FOMC have anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% through the July 2026 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic growth, stable unemployment, and recent energy-price volatility tied to Middle East developments have shifted trader focus toward the risk of…
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Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a dominant position in Montana’s open U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state’s longstanding Republican advantage in federal contests and his consolidation of party support after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him ahead of the June primaries. Alme secured the nomination with former President Trump’s backing, while independent Seth Bodnar,…
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Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Recent polling has positioned Troy Jackson ahead or statistically tied with incumbent Susan Collins in the November 3, 2026, Maine Senate contest, including surveys from Hart Research and the University of New Hampshire placing the Democrat at 49% to Collins’s 45-46%. Jackson secured the Democratic nomination at the July 25 party convention following Graham Platner’s…
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Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
Frequent Ukrainian drone attacks on or near Moscow have repeatedly prompted Russian aviation authorities to impose temporary flight restrictions at major airports including Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo for safety reasons. In mid-June 2026, a large-scale barrage forced simultaneous closures lasting several hours, delaying or canceling hundreds of flights and leading some international carriers to suspend…
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Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?
Switzerland’s September 27, 2026, popular vote features two citizen-initiated proposals requiring double majorities of voters and cantons under the country’s direct democracy system. The neutrality initiative seeks to embed a stricter constitutional definition of armed neutrality that would restrict economic sanctions and certain international alignments, drawing debate over Switzerland’s foreign policy flexibility amid ongoing European…