Platform: Polymarket
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Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ukraine’s ongoing campaign of intermediate- and long-range drone strikes has intensified pressure on Russian-held Crimea since early 2026, targeting energy infrastructure, fuel depots, bridges, airbases, and logistics routes that connect the peninsula to occupied southern Ukraine and Russia proper. These operations have produced repeated blackouts, fuel shortages, and temporary states of emergency declared by occupation…
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Will the Republican Party win the IN-04 House seat?
Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Drew Cox and independent David Bokash in Indiana’s 4th congressional district general election on November 3. The west-central Indiana district, encompassing Lafayette and surrounding rural and suburban areas, has consistently delivered Republican margins above 20 points in recent cycles,…
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Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
Ongoing diplomatic contacts between Presidents Trump and Putin, including July 2026 calls and references to prior summits in Alaska and Helsinki, have not produced firm commitments for additional in-person meetings through year-end amid the protracted Ukraine conflict. Trader pricing reflects stalled progress toward a negotiated settlement, with U.S. officials noting no quick path to a…
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Will Georgia Tree win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?
A by-election for the Western Australia state legislative constituency of Secret Harbour is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market…
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Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Milei holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the 2027 Argentine presidential election as the incumbent pursuing re-election under La Libertad Avanza, supported by his administration’s fiscal austerity measures, inflation reduction from prior highs, and 2025 midterm congressional gains. Kicillof trails closely as the leading Peronist challenger and Buenos Aires governor, with opposition efforts…
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Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?
Recent polling in Ohio’s 7th congressional district shows Democratic challenger Brian Poindexter ahead of Republican incumbent Max Miller in head-to-head matchups, including margins of 8 points or more in surveys from late July and early August 2026. Allegations of personal misconduct against Miller, which he has denied, have surfaced in the campaign and contributed to…
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Will Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent legal developments have clarified the field for France’s April 2027 presidential election. Marine Le Pen secured eligibility after a July 2026 appeals ruling eased her prior office ban, prompting her formal candidacy announcement and a proposed “winning ticket” pairing her with National Rally leader Jordan Bardella. Polling since then consistently places Le Pen first…
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Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026?
Saudi Arabia faces renewed Houthi missile and drone strikes on its southern border regions, military sites, and oil infrastructure such as the Aramco refinery in Jazan, with several incidents reported in early August 2026. These follow Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on Houthi positions in Red Sea ports including Hodeida, aimed at disrupting attacks on shipping lanes.…
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Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…