Platform: Polymarket
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Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Traders assign an 80% implied probability to “Yes” on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because major geopolitical flashpoints have remained contained through mid-August without triggering new escalations or regime shifts. Active conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue at steady levels, while U.S. tariff negotiations with Canada and upcoming G20 finance meetings in late August…
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Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Recent polling has positioned Troy Jackson ahead or statistically tied with incumbent Susan Collins in the November 3, 2026, Maine Senate contest, including surveys from Hart Research and the University of New Hampshire placing the Democrat at 49% to Collins’s 45-46%. Jackson secured the Democratic nomination at the July 25 party convention following Graham Platner’s…
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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
**Secretary Pete Hegseth continues to lead the Department of Defense amid ongoing implementation of administration priorities, including force posture reviews in Europe, NATO spending pressure, and management of operations tied to the Iran conflict.** Despite Democratic criticism over civilian protection lapses and some Republican senators voicing frustration with his leadership style and micromanagement, no formal…
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Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?
President Trump’s August 2026 schedule centers on domestic travel and administration business, including multiple visits to Trump National Golf Club properties in New Jersey and California, a Las Vegas appearance promoting tax-cut policies, and White House events such as executive orders, policy meetings, and the swearing-in of the attorney general. These activities align with midterm…
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Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Recent polling shows Jim Schwartzel and Catalina Lauf essentially tied among likely Republican primary voters in Florida’s 19th District, with Jim Oberweis a distant third and over a quarter of the electorate undecided just days before the August 18 contest. The open seat, created by incumbent Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid, has drawn a crowded field…
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Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who took office in January 2026, maintains a steady posting rhythm on the official @NYCMayor account through announcements, press briefings, and policy updates. The week of August 4–11 featured multiple scheduled events including MTA coordination and community roundtables, consistent with patterns that produce 20–39 posts without major escalations or crises. Traders price…
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Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Mary Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan has kept the Alaska Senate contest competitive, with recent polls showing the Democrat narrowly ahead or within a few points in a state that uses ranked-choice voting and a top-four primary on August 18. Peltola’s substantial fundraising advantage, including $6.9 million raised…
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Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…