Platform: Polymarket
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Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30?
Recent domestic abuse allegations against incumbent Republican Rep. Max Miller, detailed in police reports and reported in late July 2026, center on claims from his ex-wife Emily Moreno and their daughter, prompting scrutiny from Ohio Republican leaders. Sen. Bernie Moreno publicly called for Miller to resign, citing character concerns, while Miller has denied all accusations,…
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Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
**Zohran Mamdani, elected NYC mayor, secured a major policy win when the mayor-appointed Rent Guidelines Board voted 7-1 in late June 2026 to impose a 0% rent increase on both one- and two-year leases for roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments.** The freeze covers the period from October 2026 through September 2027, directly implementing his central…
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Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?
Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist state representative, holds a clear lead in late polls for the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary after multiple high-profile dropouts narrowed the field. Recent withdrawals by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes amid allegations and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez over campaign finance issues shifted support toward Hong, who now polls…
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Will Concepción Sánchez González win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…
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Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Ted Cruz maintains one of the highest posting volumes among U.S. senators on X, driven by his consistent daily output of original commentary, video clips, quote-tweets, and promotional content tied to Senate oversight, his podcast, book pre-orders, and policy positions. Historical patterns from comparable weeks show averages supporting 20-plus posts per day during routine periods…
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Will the Democratic Party win the NY-15 House seat?
The heavily Democratic composition of New York’s 15th congressional district, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+27, underpins the market’s strong consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Ritchie Torres secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly 72 percent of the vote, outpacing challengers Michael Blake…
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Will Ralph Norman win the SC Republican Senate special primary by less than 5%?
Darline Graham Nordone leads recent polling in the fragmented August 11 special Republican primary field to replace the late Lindsey Graham on the general-election ballot, buoyed by name recognition, her appointment to the seat, and an endorsement from President Trump. The crowded contest includes U.S. Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former Gov. Mark Sanford,…
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Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?
The strongly Democratic character of Illinois’s 4th congressional district, anchored in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs with a partisan lean exceeding D+15, underpins the market’s 94.8% probability for the Democratic nominee. Following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement, Patty Garcia secured the Democratic primary and general-election ballot position with unified party support, while Republican candidates remain underfunded…
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Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
US diplomatic engagement under the second Trump administration continues to drive momentum for expanding the Abraham Accords, with repeated calls in 2026 for Saudi Arabia and Qatar to normalize relations with Israel, often tied to parallel Iran negotiations and security guarantees. Kazakhstan completed its accession in early 2026 as the first Central Asian participant, while…