Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?
Republican nominee Chris Stigall secured the Missouri 6th district primary on August 4 after longtime incumbent Sam Graves retired, while Democrat Josh Smead advanced on the other side. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on its consistent voting patterns and partisan composition in recent cycles. Traders reflect this structural advantage…
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Will the Republican Party win the IL-09 House seat?
The Illinois 9th congressional district’s entrenched Democratic lean, rooted in its northern Chicago and suburban demographics, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic general election victory. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky’s 2025 retirement opened the seat, yet the March 2026 primary produced a strong nominee in Daniel Biss, a former state legislator and Evanston mayor…
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Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…
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Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?
Mikaela Waltersson leads trader consensus at 62.5% for next Region Halland board chair, reflecting her incumbency since 2018 under the Moderate Party and positioning ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, regional elections. Proportional representation and coalition dynamics create uncertainty, keeping multiple opposition figures including Per Persson at 9%, Lise-Lotte Bensköld Olsson at 5.5%, Axel Storckenfeldt…
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Will the Citizens’ Coalition (MED) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…
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Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains its dominant position in the September 2026 State Duma election through established control of administrative resources, party structures, and single-mandate districts, reinforced by recent leadership adjustments and preparations that include candidate list formation led by figures such as Dmitry Medvedev. The party benefits from the mixed electoral system, three-day voting procedures, and…
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Will Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge?
Recent political instability in Region Blekinge, including the collapse of governing coalitions and severed collaborations between Moderates and Sweden Democrats, has elevated Lars Markus Hildingsson of the Social Democrats as the leading contender. His background in union leadership and ability to advance policy priorities from the opposition have strengthened his standing ahead of the September…
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Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Trader consensus reflects a tight contest between the 200+ and 180-199 buckets, driven by steady White House social media output patterns amid routine August activity. Posting volume hinges on the frequency of official statements, press briefings, policy updates, and responses to unfolding events across primary accounts. The narrow spread captures uncertainty over whether standard operations…
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Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…
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Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…