Platform: Polymarket
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Will Scott Gillingham win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
Incumbent Scott Gillingham holds a strong lead in the Winnipeg mayoral race ahead of the October 28, 2026 vote, reflecting his established position as the sitting mayor seeking a second term and the absence of any high-profile challengers with comparable name recognition or governing experience. Recent polling from mid-2026 indicated notable voter dissatisfaction, yet most…
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Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?
Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd congressional district, stretching across parts of Broward, Palm Beach, Collier, and other counties, features a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4 and delivered a 10-point margin for the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Redistricting legislation passed in spring 2026 and signed by Governor DeSantis created an open seat with no incumbent,…
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Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat?
Georgia’s 4th Congressional District, anchored in Atlanta’s southeastern suburbs across DeKalb and Gwinnett counties, maintains a strong Democratic tilt that underpins the current market pricing. Incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary after qualifying for his eleventh term earlier in the year and has held the seat since 2007, including…
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Will Fred Clark be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?
Fred Clark holds a commanding lead in the WI-07 Democratic primary due to his prior service as a Wisconsin state representative, established name recognition across parts of the district, and professional background as a forester and conservationist that aligns with the rural northern economy. Multiple Democratic endorsements and media assessments have positioned him as the…
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Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Iran’s Supreme Leader succession unfolded rapidly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March following an interim tripartite council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian. Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile since taking office, with state media…
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Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Recent spring 2026 turnover in the Trump administration, including departures of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard amid the Iran conflict and policy recalibrations, has shaped current trader positioning. With new confirmations such as Todd Blanche at Justice and Jay Clayton…
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Will the Republican Party win the AZ-09 House seat?
Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 9th congressional district after both advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries. The solidly Republican district, rated Safe or Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, underpins the market’s strong consensus for a GOP victory. Gosar’s established incumbency and the…
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Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?
Incumbent Jared Moskowitz holds a commanding position in the August 18 Democratic primary for Florida’s 25th Congressional District due to his substantial fundraising advantage, with over $1.88 million cash on hand compared to challenger Oliver Larkin’s much smaller war chest, alongside stronger polling averages in most surveys. Larkin’s recent TV and digital ad campaign attacking…
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Will Yabloko win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Recent polling from sources such as VCIOM and FOM shows New People and the LDPR trading narrow leads in the low double digits for third place behind United Russia, with the KPRF close behind but structurally steadier in regional strongholds. Party list registrations closed in July, CEC appointments incorporated figures from both LDPR and New…
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Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Trump’s established pattern of high-volume posting on Truth Social, often exceeding 15-20 posts daily with frequent short bursts and AI-generated content, forms the core driver behind the market’s emphasis on 180-199 or 200+ posts for the August 4-11 window. Historical data, including over 100 posts in single days and hundreds monthly, supports trader consensus around…