Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic traders currently hold a 59.5% implied probability of winning the 2028 presidential election, reflecting consensus that midterm results and administration performance will shift momentum toward the opposition party. With Donald Trump serving his second nonconsecutive term, expectations of Democratic House gains in the November 2026 midterms—driven by polling averages showing a national swing—have reinforced…
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Lula da Silva, the incumbent president seeking a fourth term, leads first-round polling at 39-44 percent, while Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro, trails at 30-40 percent. Multiple center-right and conservative candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remain in single digits and show limited consolidation.…
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Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk’s posting pace this week has kept the 160-179 and 180-199 buckets nearly tied, with the former edging ahead at 50.5% implied probability. High-volume days early in the period, including spikes above 30 posts, combined with steady commentary on AI tools like Grok, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political topics, have anchored trader expectations…
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Will the Democratic Party win the IN-03 House seat?
Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary for Indiana’s 3rd congressional district, defeating challenger Jon Kenworthy and advancing to face Democrat Kelly Thompson, who ran unopposed. The northeast Indiana district, centered on Fort Wayne, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, including Stutzman’s 65% win in 2024. Trader consensus at…
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Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?
The tight contest in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election, set for August 31, 2026, centers on Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé and Liberal Daniel Gobeil, with trader consensus reflecting their near parity amid the riding’s history of fragmented three-way results. Gobeil’s agricultural background and local roots have anchored Liberal support, while Dubé’s platform has sustained…
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Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?
Rachel De Basso holds the position of incumbent chair of the Regional Executive Board in Region Jönköpings län as a Social Democrat, driving her 77.5% implied probability ahead of the September 13, 2026, regional elections. Current coalition arrangements, including cooperation with other parties holding a majority in the regional council, support continuity in leadership selection.…
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Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus as the likely next Israeli prime minister following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, reflecting his recent polling surge with the Yashar party, which has drawn even or ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Eizenkot’s positioning stems from his record as former IDF chief of staff, personal losses during the Gaza…
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Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden’s September 13 general election is approaching with consistent polling showing the Social Democrat-led centre-left opposition bloc ahead of the incumbent centre-right Tidö government by roughly eight points. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, polling near 32-34 percent as the largest party, anchor this lead and position her to lead coalition negotiations if the result holds. Trader…
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Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Peggy Flanagan win Hennepin County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?
Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding position in the Hennepin County portion of Minnesota’s August 11 Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary for U.S. Senate, driven by her recent expansion of a double-digit lead in statewide polling, the party’s official endorsement, and backing from retiring Sen. Tina Smith along with organized labor. As lieutenant governor and a progressive with deep…