Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by December 31?
President Aleksandar Vučić’s June 2026 announcement that he would resign within weeks and call early parliamentary and presidential elections has become the central driver of trader expectations for National Assembly dissolution. Ongoing mass protests and institutional pressure have reinforced the likelihood of a snap vote before the regular December 2027 deadline, with the president holding…
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Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?
Cloudflare’s infrastructure has experienced multiple notable incidents since late 2025, including a major November 18 outage lasting several hours that disrupted core traffic due to an oversized Bot Management feature file from a database permissions change, followed by a shorter December 5 event affecting 28% of HTTP traffic and a February 20, 2026 BGP route…
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Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Tyler Robinson faces aggravated murder charges in Utah for the September 2025 fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University, with prosecutors pursuing the death penalty upon conviction. As of August 2026, the case remains in the pretrial phase following a five-day preliminary hearing in July that presented DNA evidence, a note referencing the…
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Will the Democratic Party win the LA-04 House seat?
Louisiana’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson, first elected in 2016, holds a commanding fundraising and name-recognition edge heading into the November 2026 jungle primary against limited Democratic challengers and minor intra-party opponents. Forecasters across…
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Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
The broad field of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, revealed in April, has left trader sentiment fragmented with no dominant frontrunner on Polymarket. Yulia Navalnaya edges ahead at 8.5% implied probability due to her high-profile continuation of Russian opposition work following her husband’s death, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy and organizations like UNRWA or…
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
Recent US-Iran diplomatic efforts center on implementing a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, including Strait of Hormuz access, with a 60-day window for broader nuclear and sanctions talks. Trader pricing assigns nearly half the probability to no meeting by September 30 amid mixed signals, including paused strikes, Iranian denials of imminent direct…
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Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
President Trump’s diplomatic calendar in 2026 centers on bilateral meetings and state visits amid ongoing U.S.-China engagement, including his May summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing and the reciprocal September 24 visit by the Chinese leader to Washington for discussions on artificial intelligence and trade. Additional scheduled engagements include a September trip to Ireland for…
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Will Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election?
The SPD’s nomination of Eva Bender in September 2025 as its candidate to succeed incumbent Regionspräsident Steffen Krach has anchored her position as the frontrunner in the September 13, 2026, Hannover Region presidential election. As the city’s Dezernentin für Bildung und Kultur, Bender secured her party’s endorsement with 99 percent member support, reflecting strong internal…
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Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?
Ukrainian counterattacks in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast during early 2026 pushed Russian forces out of northern and central Prymorske and surrounding positions near Richne, Lukyanivske, and Orikhiv, reversing limited Russian gains from late 2025 and January 2026. Ukrainian forces have continued localized pressure and drone strikes against Russian logistics in the sector through mid-2026, contributing to…