Platform: Polymarket
-
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
Recent developments show stalled momentum for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, with the most recent trilateral meetings in Geneva during February 2026 yielding only prisoner exchanges and no progress on core disputes over territory, Ukrainian neutrality, or security guarantees. In July, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations despite openness to the idea…
-
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
-
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran’s primary uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and rendering key facilities inoperable. IAEA access has been curtailed, enrichment has not resumed according to official statements, and a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran’s…
-
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable sovereign right, as stated by officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian during 2025–2026 talks with the United States. Multiple rounds of indirect negotiations, including via Oman, have produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding on stockpile dilution…
-
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Mitch McConnell has publicly committed to completing his Senate term through January 2027 after announcing in February 2025 that he would not seek an eighth term. Recent health-related absences since mid-June 2026 have prompted calls from figures including Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear for proof of capacity or resignation, yet McConnell has shown no intent to…
-
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%?
Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist state representative, holds a clear lead in late polls for the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary after multiple high-profile dropouts narrowed the field. Recent withdrawals by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes amid allegations and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez over campaign finance issues shifted support toward Hong, who now polls…
-
Will Malin Sjölander be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County?
Angelica Katsanidou leads trader consensus at 68.5% as the incumbent Social Democrat (S) regionstyrelsens ordförande and the party’s confirmed candidate for re-election ahead of the September 13, 2026 regional vote. She secured the S nomination in April 2026, reinforcing her position if the current centre-left coalition with the Centre Party and Left Party retains influence…
-
Will Mike Hurley win the 2026 Burnaby mayoral election?
Incumbent Mike Hurley holds a commanding position in the Burnaby mayoral race for the October 17, 2026, general local election, reflecting trader consensus on his established record and the absence of organized opposition. Hurley, first elected in 2018 and acclaimed in 2022 with cross-party backing, announced his third-term bid on August 6 and benefits from…
-
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus as the likely next Israeli prime minister following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, reflecting his recent polling surge with the Yashar party, which has drawn even or ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Eizenkot’s positioning stems from his record as former IDF chief of staff, personal losses during the Gaza…
-
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…