Platform: Polymarket
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Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat?
California’s 16th congressional district exhibits a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in its Silicon Valley and South Bay demographics, where voter registration and historical results favor the party by wide margins. Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured over 75% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing comfortably against Republican challengers and underscoring limited GOP viability. Forecasters…
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Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Romania’s prolonged government formation crisis following the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ousted the Bolojan caretaker cabinet continues to shape trader positioning. President Nicușor Dan’s unsuccessful attempts to install technocratic or party-nominated candidates, including Eugen Tomac and Adrian Veștea, highlighted parliamentary fragmentation and the need for a figure capable of securing cross-party support amid fiscal…
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Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?
Nate Pollnow leads the Wisconsin Republican primary for secretary of state with strong trader consensus due to his May endorsement from the Republican Party of Wisconsin at its state convention. As a Dodge County beef cattle farmer and former town board chair, Pollnow has positioned his campaign around government transparency, including a proposed public registry…
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Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Recent July 2026 polls from Infratest dimap and INSA show the SPD at 28-29% support ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, placing it second behind the AfD at 35-36%. This vote share, combined with the 5% threshold and proportional allocation across roughly 71 seats, points to an SPD total in the low-to-mid 20s. Minister-President…
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Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?
Recent constituency polling shows Reform UK leader Nigel Farage holding a commanding lead of roughly 73% to 20% for the leading independent challenger, producing a projected margin well above 30 points on low expected turnout. The absence of candidates from the main Westminster parties, combined with Farage’s decision to resign and re-contest the seat he…
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Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of the Parti Québécois holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, driven by consistent polling advantages for the PQ among decided voters and francophones. Christine Fréchette, who succeeded François Legault as CAQ leader and was sworn in as premier in April 2026, trails amid…
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Will Anabell Ávalos Zempoalteca win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…
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Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
NATO Allies have repeatedly described Ukraine’s path to membership as irreversible since the 2008 Bucharest Summit and removed the Membership Action Plan requirement at the 2023 Vilnius Summit, yet the July 2026 Ankara Summit produced only a €70 billion aid pledge without extending an invitation or launching accession talks. The active conflict with Russia remains…