Platform: Polymarket
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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Taiwan’s ongoing military modernization and large-scale Han Kuang exercises, which began August 6, 2026, with record reservist mobilization and U.S.-inspired tactics, underscore defensive preparations that raise the anticipated costs of any amphibious operation. China continues gray-zone pressure through reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, China Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen, and periodic live-fire drills in the…
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Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Recent polling by Survation places Count Binface at around 20% in the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, driven primarily by the decision of Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens to stand aside, concentrating protest and tactical votes behind the novelty candidate. Binface’s high media profile, detailed manifesto pledges targeting the incumbent, and positioning as a…
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Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
**Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the market-implied probability of fewer than 180 weekly vessel calls to 66.5%.** In July 2026, amid escalation in the broader Iran conflict, Yemen’s Houthis announced restrictions on vessels tied to Saudi ports and struck multiple…
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Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will the Liberals (L) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…
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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Recent developments show stalled momentum for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, with the most recent trilateral meetings in Geneva during February 2026 yielding only prisoner exchanges and no progress on core disputes over territory, Ukrainian neutrality, or security guarantees. In July, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations despite openness to the idea…
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Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by September 30?
President Trump has renewed efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook through a formal notice process after the Supreme Court’s June 2026 ruling blocked his initial 2025 attempt. That decision required due process before any “for cause” removal under the Federal Reserve Act, citing protections for central bank independence. The latest step, a White…
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Will Peggy Flanagan win Ramsey County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?
Peggy Flanagan’s commanding position in the Minnesota Democratic U.S. Senate primary stems from her expanding statewide polling lead, now at 46-32 percent over Rep. Angie Craig with the August 11 vote underway, and a broad array of high-profile endorsements from figures including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Sen. Al Franken, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and St.…
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NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
US intelligence assessments released in early August 2026 indicate Russia could attempt a limited incursion or hybrid probe against NATO’s eastern flank, such as the Baltics or Poland, as early as autumn 2026 through 2029 to test Article 5 commitments without triggering full alliance response. These warnings occur amid Russia’s ongoing Ukraine campaign, NATO’s accelerated…