Platform: Polymarket
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Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iran’s asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, amid recent vessel attacks and a U.S. naval presence, have driven daily transits to single digits or low teens as of early August 2026, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 100 vessels. This environment underpins the tight contest between the 25-49 and…
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Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most commercial traffic, driving the 80.5% market-implied probability on 0-20 daily transits. Recent ship-tracking data from IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show averages of just 2-8 vessels per day in early August, versus pre-crisis…
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Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?
President Trump’s diplomatic calendar in 2026 centers on bilateral meetings and state visits amid ongoing U.S.-China engagement, including his May summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing and the reciprocal September 24 visit by the Chinese leader to Washington for discussions on artificial intelligence and trade. Additional scheduled engagements include a September trip to Ireland for…
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Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Randy Fine’s position as the heavy favorite in the August 18 Florida 6th District Republican primary stems primarily from his status as the sitting incumbent who won the 2025 special election, combined with a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million raised and strong institutional support such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement. Challengers including…
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Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?
The September 13, 2026, regional election remains the decisive catalyst for the Skåne Regional Board Chair market, with results determining seat distribution, governing coalitions, and the subsequent appointment of the executive committee chair under Sweden’s proportional system. Incumbent Carl Johan Sonesson (Moderate Party) benefits from continuity in healthcare and fiscal policy since 2018, while Henrik…
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Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden’s September 13 general election is approaching with consistent polling showing the Social Democrat-led centre-left opposition bloc ahead of the incumbent centre-right Tidö government by roughly eight points. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, polling near 32-34 percent as the largest party, anchor this lead and position her to lead coalition negotiations if the result holds. Trader…
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Will White House post 180-199 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Recent executive actions, press briefings, and policy rollouts under the current administration have sustained elevated activity levels on the official @WhiteHouse account, consistent with Pew data showing posting rates more than double those of the prior term. This supports the tight contest between the 180-199 and 200+ ranges, as weekly totals typically cluster near 25-30…
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Will there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?
**Ongoing diplomatic deadlock over the succession to Christian Schmidt, who resigned in May 2026 with his term ending July 1, has left the position filled only by acting High Representative Louis J. Crishock.** The Peace Implementation Council Steering Board has held multiple meetings without consensus on a permanent successor, including a July 14 session that…
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Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus as the likely next Israeli prime minister following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, reflecting his recent polling surge with the Yashar party, which has drawn even or ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Eizenkot’s positioning stems from his record as former IDF chief of staff, personal losses during the Gaza…