Platform: Polymarket
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Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?
Iran’s July 2026 ballistic missile strikes on U.S. facilities in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, alongside targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, represent the most recent direct actions against Arab states amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities following the spring ceasefire breakdown. These attacks align with Tehran’s pattern of horizontal escalation to pressure U.S. partners and raise costs for…
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Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Romania’s prolonged government formation crisis following the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ousted the Bolojan caretaker cabinet continues to shape trader positioning. President Nicușor Dan’s unsuccessful attempts to install technocratic or party-nominated candidates, including Eugen Tomac and Adrian Veștea, highlighted parliamentary fragmentation and the need for a figure capable of securing cross-party support amid fiscal…
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Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
Persistent inflation near 3.5% year-over-year and a divided FOMC have anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% through the July 2026 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic growth, stable unemployment, and recent energy-price volatility tied to Middle East developments have shifted trader focus toward the risk of…
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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ongoing stalemate in direct talks and maximalist positions on both sides have kept the implied probability of a signed Ukraine-Russia peace agreement before 2027 at just 18.5%. Multiple rounds of U.S.-brokered discussions in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier in 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges and no movement on core disputes over territory, security guarantees, or…
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Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Cleitinho Azevedo’s recent confirmation as the Republicanos nominee, following party reversals and personal announcements in early August, has reinforced his position as the clear frontrunner in the fragmented 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial race. Pre-candidacy polls from Quaest and Genial consistently showed him leading first-round intentions by wide margins and prevailing in hypothetical runoffs, driven by…
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Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state’s consistent Democratic lean, his primary victory with over 80 percent of the vote, and the absence of a major-party Republican nominee. The GOP candidate, Larry Marker, advanced only as a write-in after no one qualified…
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Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains its dominant position in the September 2026 State Duma election through established control of administrative resources, party structures, and single-mandate districts, reinforced by recent leadership adjustments and preparations that include candidate list formation led by figures such as Dmitry Medvedev. The party benefits from the mixed electoral system, three-day voting procedures, and…
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Will the Democratic Party win the PA-14 House seat?
Guy Reschenthaler, the four-term Republican incumbent first elected in 2018, holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s partisan voting index favors Republicans by roughly 17 points, and Reschenthaler won reelection in 2024 by more than 30 points. He advanced unopposed through the May…