Platform: Polymarket
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Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County?
Angelica Katsanidou leads trader consensus at 68.5% as the incumbent Social Democrat (S) regionstyrelsens ordförande and the party’s confirmed candidate for re-election ahead of the September 13, 2026 regional vote. She secured the S nomination in April 2026, reinforcing her position if the current centre-left coalition with the Centre Party and Left Party retains influence…
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Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
Most countries that have not recognized Israel—primarily Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation members such as Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and several others—continue to link any diplomatic normalization to progress on Palestinian statehood or a comprehensive resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. No new formal recognitions occurred in 2026 following the Abraham Accords era, with…
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Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending 22 seats against 13 Democratic-held contests, starting from a 53-47 majority. Midterm patterns under a Republican administration, combined with recent polling averages and generic ballot trends showing headwinds for the president’s party, have shaped trader views on potential net losses. Competitive races in Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and…
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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
US-Iran nuclear diplomacy continues to center on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile amid stalled talks and recent military strikes on sites like Fordow and Isfahan. US negotiators have pressed for physical transfer of the material to the United States, facility dismantlement, and extended enrichment limits, while Iranian officials reject these terms and favor…
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Will the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?
Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa’s re-election bid in California’s 21st congressional district drives the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. Costa advanced comfortably from the June 2026 primary alongside Republican Kyle Kirkland, reflecting the district’s recent voting patterns and the incumbent’s established support base in the Central Valley. The seat’s 2024 margin and California’s broader…
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Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated there is no point in a direct meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until lower-level experts reach preliminary agreements on core issues such as territory, security guarantees, and ceasefires. Recent US-mediated negotiator talks in locations including Abu Dhabi produced limited progress on prisoner exchanges but stalled on major…
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Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?
The Tisza Party’s supermajority in Hungary’s National Assembly, secured in the April 2026 parliamentary elections, drives the near-certain trader consensus around András Baka. Parliament elects the largely ceremonial president, and the party’s August 8 nomination of the former Supreme Court chief—removed in 2011 after criticizing prior judicial changes—positions him as the sole candidate for the…
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Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Niclas Nilsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?
The September 13, 2026, regional election remains the decisive catalyst for the Skåne Regional Board Chair market, with results determining seat distribution, governing coalitions, and the subsequent appointment of the executive committee chair under Sweden’s proportional system. Incumbent Carl Johan Sonesson (Moderate Party) benefits from continuity in healthcare and fiscal policy since 2018, while Henrik…