Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic traders currently hold a 59.5% implied probability of winning the 2028 presidential election, reflecting consensus that midterm results and administration performance will shift momentum toward the opposition party. With Donald Trump serving his second nonconsecutive term, expectations of Democratic House gains in the November 2026 midterms—driven by polling averages showing a national swing—have reinforced…
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Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?
Democratic incumbent Jimmy Panetta holds a commanding lead in California’s 19th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, with the market assigning roughly 95% probability to a Democratic victory. The district’s partisan lean, consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles, and Panetta’s strong primary performance—securing over 58% against fragmented opposition—anchor trader consensus. Redistricting and…
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Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Strong U.S. congressional opposition, explicit NATO alliance commitments, and Denmark’s firm rejection of any sovereignty transfer have anchored trader expectations against a 2026 U.S. invasion of Greenland. President Trump’s early-2026 rhetoric included tariff threats and refusal to rule out force, yet he publicly stated at Davos in January that military action would not be used,…
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Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
In the days leading into the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, recent July polling shows Byron Donalds maintaining a substantial lead near 45 percent while Jay Collins and James Fishback each register low double digits or single digits amid sizable undecided blocs. Fishback’s positioning stems from his early 2025 campaign launch emphasizing affordability,…
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Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most commercial traffic, driving the 80.5% market-implied probability on 0-20 daily transits. Recent ship-tracking data from IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show averages of just 2-8 vessels per day in early August, versus pre-crisis…
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Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…