Platform: Polymarket
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Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Xavier Becerra holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the California governorship due to his decisive advancement through the June 2026 top-two primary and the state’s longstanding Democratic advantage in statewide contests. As the Democratic nominee facing Republican Steve Hilton in the November general election, Becerra benefits from unified party support, a proven record…
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Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Trilateral US-mediated meetings between Russian, Ukrainian, and American envoys in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February 2026 represented the first formal diplomatic contacts since 2022, focusing on practical issues such as prisoner exchanges and humanitarian measures, though core disputes over territory and security guarantees produced no breakthroughs. Negotiations stalled after late February amid…
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2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Traders see the 2026 midterms as closely contested because Democrats hold an early edge in generic ballot polling and special election swings while Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers under the historical midterm penalty for the president’s party. With 35 Senate seats up—including 22 Republican-held—and Democrats needing a net gain of roughly four seats…
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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day (extendable) framework for talks after months of conflict that disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. The MoU calls for immediate steps on navigation rights, sanctions relief tied to verified nuclear steps, working groups on oversight and missiles, and de-escalation in…
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Will the Republican Party win the MA-02 House seat?
Incumbent Democrat Jim McGovern holds a commanding position in Massachusetts’s 2nd congressional district, rated Solid D or Safe D by major forecasters with a partisan voting index exceeding D+13. His consistent general election margins above 30 points in recent cycles, combined with the absence of a competitive Republican nominee ahead of the November 2026 general…
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Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…