Platform: Polymarket
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Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Angie Craig win Ramsey County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?
Peggy Flanagan’s commanding position in the Minnesota Democratic U.S. Senate primary stems from her expanding statewide polling lead, now at 46-32 percent over Rep. Angie Craig with the August 11 vote underway, and a broad array of high-profile endorsements from figures including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Sen. Al Franken, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and St.…
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Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
**The special Republican primary to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on South Carolina’s November ballot remains tightly contested on election day, with Darline Graham Nordone holding a modest lead in trader pricing.** Her position stems from her interim appointment by Gov. Henry McMaster, family name recognition, and President Trump’s endorsement, yet the crowded field…
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
Israel maintains a military presence in southern Lebanon amid the 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreed in April 2026 and extended in June. Withdrawal hinges on Hezbollah’s full evacuation south of the Litani River, disarmament verification, and Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control of designated zones. Recent incidents, including an early August…
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Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?
Nate Pollnow leads the Wisconsin Republican primary for secretary of state with strong trader consensus due to his May endorsement from the Republican Party of Wisconsin at its state convention. As a Dodge County beef cattle farmer and former town board chair, Pollnow has positioned his campaign around government transparency, including a proposed public registry…
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Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Incumbent Karen Bass holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the November runoff due to her established citywide support base and advantages as sitting mayor seeking a second term. Nithya Raman advanced from the June primary by overtaking other challengers to secure the second spot, positioning the race as a contest between the moderate…
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Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
US President Donald Trump’s April 2026 threats to withdraw the United States from NATO, citing European allies’ refusal to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during tensions with Iran, briefly elevated trader attention to alliance stability. Those comments, which labeled NATO a “paper tiger,” followed earlier signals from the administration on burden-sharing and troop…