Platform: Polymarket
-
Will Carlos Augusto Pérez Hernández win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…
-
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Ongoing mutual strikes, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and Russian missile barrages on Ukrainian cities, have sustained high-intensity conflict into August 2026 with no verified breakthrough in ceasefire talks. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-facilitated short-term truces and prisoner exchanges earlier in the year plus trilateral meetings in Geneva, have produced limited results…
-
Will Darline Graham Nordone place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
The South Carolina special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat features a crowded field that has kept second-place positioning fluid ahead of the August 11 first round. Ralph Norman’s established congressional record and endorsements have positioned him as the frontrunner for runner-up status among traders, while Darline Graham Nordone’s Trump endorsement and family…
-
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features Die Linke as the clear market leader, reflecting consistent leads in recent city-specific polling trends where the party has risen to around 20 percent amid gains among younger voters and in western districts. CDU follows as the main center-right contender but trails in current surveys, while AfD…
-
Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?
Ademola Adeleke holds a commanding position in the Osun State gubernatorial race as the incumbent seeking re-election on the Accord Party ticket ahead of the August 15, 2026, vote. His 77.5% implied probability reflects trader assessment of established name recognition, state resources, and campaign momentum following his recent emergence as the Accord nominee after navigating…
-
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
**Traders see Elon Musk’s posting pace this weekend as moderate at best, with the 40-64 tweet range (roughly 13–21 posts per day) commanding a 53.5% implied probability.** Recent trackers show daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s to mid-30s through early August 2026, and a single-day count of 41 posts on August 9 fits squarely inside…
-
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro remains the leading outcome in trader assessments for Venezuela’s head of state at the end of 2026, reflecting institutional continuity after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces. Venezuelan state bodies, including the Supreme Tribunal and National Assembly, continue to recognize him as the constitutional president while Delcy Rodríguez serves only in an…
-
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Trump’s established pattern of high-volume posting on Truth Social, often exceeding 15-20 posts daily with frequent short bursts and AI-generated content, forms the core driver behind the market’s emphasis on 180-199 or 200+ posts for the August 4-11 window. Historical data, including over 100 posts in single days and hundreds monthly, supports trader consensus around…
-
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Recent polling by Survation places Count Binface at around 20% in the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, driven primarily by the decision of Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens to stand aside, concentrating protest and tactical votes behind the novelty candidate. Binface’s high media profile, detailed manifesto pledges targeting the incumbent, and positioning as a…
-
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Tensions in China-Japan relations have persisted since the leaders’ October 2025 APEC meeting in South Korea, with Beijing protesting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s subsequent contacts with Taiwan officials and her support for strengthened defense cooperation. Xi Jinping publicly criticized Japan’s “remilitarization” during a May 2026 summit with U.S. President Trump, while July 2026 diplomatic exchanges…