Platform: Polymarket
-
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
Russian forces continue limited offensive operations in the Orikhiv sector of western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, advancing from the south and attempting infiltration and glide-bomb strikes from the east near Hulyaipole to shape conditions for future assaults on the town and nearby heights. Ukrainian units have conducted counterattacks that recaptured positions west and southwest of Orikhiv in…
-
Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?
Ademola Adeleke holds a commanding position in the Osun State gubernatorial race as the incumbent seeking re-election on the Accord Party ticket ahead of the August 15, 2026, vote. His 77.5% implied probability reflects trader assessment of established name recognition, state resources, and campaign momentum following his recent emergence as the Accord nominee after navigating…
-
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-13 House seat?
Michigan’s 13th congressional district, encompassing much of Detroit and adjacent Wayne County suburbs, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its D+22 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent general election margins above 40 points in recent cycles. The August 4, 2026, Democratic primary produced nominee Donavan McKinney after he defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar, consolidating support…
-
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
-
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive against Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast since April 2024, using artillery, drones, and incremental ground assaults to gain ground east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal and in southern sectors. Russian claims of full capture in July 2025 remain disputed, with open-source assessments indicating continued Ukrainian presence and…
-
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
-
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
-
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
-
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Democrats have intensified calls for impeachment proceedings against President Trump, driven by his administration’s military actions in Iran and Venezuela, along with related executive statements and DOJ investigations. Multiple resolutions, including H.Res.939 introduced in December 2025 and additional articles citing war powers concerns, have advanced through the House Judiciary Committee. Traders appear to weigh the…
-
Will Floria María Hernández Hernández win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…