Platform: Polymarket
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Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31?
Jeanine Pirro, confirmed by the Senate in August 2025 as U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia after an interim stint beginning in May 2025, faces mounting uncertainty following a public dispute with the Trump administration. Prosecutors under her office recently dropped charges against individuals accused of vandalism at the Reflecting Pool, citing insufficient evidence…
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Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?
Russian forces have claimed control of Svitle, a settlement south of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, with the Russian Defense Ministry announcing the seizure by elements of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on July 29. Independent assessments, including from the Institute for the Study of War, indicate that earlier Russian statements overstated advances in the…
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Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
Count Binface leads the Clacton by-election second-place market at 98.7% because major parties including Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens are not fielding candidates following Nigel Farage’s July 2026 resignation and decision to re-contest the seat. This leaves the novelty candidate—who has stood in multiple prior elections—as the highest-profile option in a record 34-candidate field…
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Will David Crowley win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
Francesca Hong leads the market for the Democratic primary winner in Kenosha County at 79.5% implied probability, ahead of David Crowley at 19%, as her grassroots campaign and polling surge position her as the statewide frontrunner heading into the August 11 vote. Recent developments include Hong’s consistent lead in late surveys driven by appeals on…
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Recent diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Pakistan are the main driver behind current trader positioning on whether direct Israel-Iran hostilities remain paused. A June memorandum of understanding aimed to end large-scale fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Lebanon operations, and set a timeline for nuclear talks, but Iran’s July strikes on commercial vessels prompted…
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Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Recent polling by Survation places Count Binface at around 20% in the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, driven primarily by the decision of Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens to stand aside, concentrating protest and tactical votes behind the novelty candidate. Binface’s high media profile, detailed manifesto pledges targeting the incumbent, and positioning as a…
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Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
The tight race between Chuck Schumer at 39.5% and John Thune at 35.5% reflects uncertainty over the November 2026 Senate elections, which will determine majority control and thus which party’s caucus selects the next leader. Forecasts show a near toss-up, with Republicans holding a narrow edge in simulations based on fundraising, candidate quality, and state-level…