Platform: Polymarket
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Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
The crowded Wyoming Republican primary for the at-large U.S. House seat, scheduled for August 18, features Steve Friess and Secretary of State Chuck Gray as the leading contenders amid a field of roughly a dozen candidates. Recent candidate forums, including the August 6 debate in Sheridan, have sharpened contrasts on energy policy, taxes, and federal…
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Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
Heightened geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade, continue to shape trader positioning in related prediction markets. Iran’s August 2026 parliamentary push to restrict U.S. and Israeli vessels while imposing transit tolls, paired with the U.S. Central Command’s redirection of over 55 commercial ships under…
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Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Israel’s Knesset dissolved in July 2026, scheduling legislative elections for October 27 that will determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forms a new coalition or yields power after serving as interim leader. His Likud party competes against opposition alliances including figures such as Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with polls indicating a competitive right-wing bloc…
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Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
Russian forces continue incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast through infiltration tactics and glide bomb strikes, with recent gains focused near Kostyantynivka and preparations for operations toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk as part of efforts to pressure Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. Ground progress remains slow, averaging under 2 square kilometers per day in July 2026, reflecting positional warfare…
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Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…