Platform: Polymarket
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Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Lisa Demuth leads the Minnesota Republican primary for governor as House speaker with strong fundraising and establishment support, positioning her ahead of Mike Lindell in trader consensus despite recent polls showing a close race. Lindell gained ground after securing Donald Trump’s endorsement and stepping down as MyPillow CEO to focus on the campaign, though questions…
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Will Brad Smith be the WI-06 Democratic nominee?
Brad Smith leads the WI-06 Democratic primary market at 85.5% implied probability due to his substantial fundraising edge, with over $155,000 raised compared to Amanda Bell’s roughly $35,000, alongside broader donor support across the district. Multiple other candidates withdrew earlier in 2026, narrowing the contest to Smith, a Mequon-based veteran and business owner, and Bell,…
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Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Recent polling by Survation places Count Binface at around 20% in the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, driven primarily by the decision of Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens to stand aside, concentrating protest and tactical votes behind the novelty candidate. Binface’s high media profile, detailed manifesto pledges targeting the incumbent, and positioning as a…
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Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will the Democratic Party win the MO-07 House seat?
Incumbent Republican Eric Burlison’s decisive August 4 primary victory, securing roughly 74% against two challengers, reinforces the market’s 95% consensus for the Republican Party in Missouri’s 7th district. The southwestern Missouri seat, encompassing Springfield, Joplin, and Branson, maintains a solid Republican lean consistent with prior cycles, including Burlison’s 2024 general election margin exceeding 40 points.…
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Will Meit Fohlin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gotland?
Meit Fohlin, the incumbent Social Democrat (S) chair of Region Gotland’s regional board, holds an 82.5% implied probability in the market due to her established role leading the current S-M governing arrangement since the 2022 election and the party’s organizational strength ahead of the September 13, 2026, regional vote. Traders appear to price in continuity,…
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Will Trump say “Lindsey” or “Graham” this week?
President Trump’s public schedule for August 10–16, 2026, centers on executive actions, tele-rallies supporting Republican Senate and House candidates, and routine White House engagements that often include remarks on policy priorities. Recent developments include the signing of executive orders addressing citizenship protections and birth tourism, ongoing friction with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu over a proposed…
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Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…