Platform: Polymarket
-
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
-
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
The South Carolina special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat features a crowded field that has kept second-place positioning fluid ahead of the August 11 first round. Ralph Norman’s established congressional record and endorsements have positioned him as the frontrunner for runner-up status among traders, while Darline Graham Nordone’s Trump endorsement and family…
-
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
-
Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
-
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
Russian forces continue offensive operations around Lyman in Donetsk Oblast as part of broader efforts to advance toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, with daily assaults reported near Drobysheve, Dibrova, Ozerne, and surrounding villages. Ukrainian units have repelled dozens of attacks in recent weeks while using drones to disrupt Russian logistics and supply lines. Verified advances remain…
-
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
-
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?
Ukrainian and Russian forces continue intense fighting in the Pokrovsk direction of Donetsk Oblast, where Rodynske serves as a contested logistics node on supply routes. Recent geolocated reports show Russian advances into western parts of the settlement alongside Ukrainian counterattacks and strikes on concentrations near the town, reflecting localized shifts amid broader efforts to disrupt…
-
Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
-
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
Recent June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year from May’s 4.2% peak, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while core CPI fell to 2.6%. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% amid concerns that inflation may reaccelerate later in 2026, with…
-
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains its dominant position in the September 2026 State Duma election through established control of administrative resources, party structures, and single-mandate districts, reinforced by recent leadership adjustments and preparations that include candidate list formation led by figures such as Dmitry Medvedev. The party benefits from the mixed electoral system, three-day voting procedures, and…