Platform: Polymarket
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Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
**Traders price an 88.5% chance against a direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 because both sides have channeled rivalry into non-kinetic competition rather than open conflict.** Tensions center on Turkish influence in post-Assad Syria, Eastern Mediterranean energy claims, and Israeli alliances with Greece and Cyprus, with recent moves including Israel’s June 2026 cabinet recognition of…
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Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
Recent US-Iran diplomatic talks and the June 2026 issuance of OFAC General License X, which temporarily authorized Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21, drove initial market-implied odds on reissuance of sanction relief. The license’s swift revocation on July 7 following reported tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with renewed Treasury…
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Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat?
The strong Republican tilt of Pennsylvania’s 9th congressional district, reflected in its R+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Donald Trump’s 38-point margin there in 2024, underpins the Republican Party’s 96.4% implied probability of holding the seat. Incumbent Dan Meuser benefits from established name recognition and fundraising advantages in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple…
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Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat?
Incumbent Republican Lisa McClain faces Democrat Ray Pooley in Michigan’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following uncontested or low-contest primaries in early August. The district’s partisan lean, covering Huron, Lapeer, St. Clair, and portions of Macomb and Oakland counties, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, supporting the current trader consensus reflected…
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Will the Republican Party win the CO-02 House seat?
Incumbent Democratic Rep. Joe Neguse faces Republican nominee Kelley Dennison in Colorado’s 2nd congressional district, a north-central area encompassing northwestern Denver suburbs that has favored Democrats by wide margins for decades. Nonpartisan forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting…
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Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive against Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast since April 2024, using artillery, drones, and incremental ground assaults to gain ground east of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal and in southern sectors. Russian claims of full capture in July 2025 remain disputed, with open-source assessments indicating continued Ukrainian presence and…
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Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…