Platform: Polymarket
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Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Recent opinion polls for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election show the Social Democrats holding a clear lead near 32–34 percent, with the Sweden Democrats consistently placed second around 19–21 percent and the Moderate Party third near 17–18 percent. This stable ordering across multiple surveys from May through July has anchored trader expectations that the…
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Will White House post 160-179 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Traders assign the highest probability to the 180-199 range because it aligns with the White House account’s established weekly posting volume under routine conditions. The account typically generates 25–28 posts per day through a combination of official statements, event announcements, policy updates, and responses to the daily news cycle. The current week features no major…
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Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
Amanda Janoo leads the Vermont Democratic primary for governor at 58% in trader consensus, ahead of Aly Richards at 38%, as the August 11 vote nears. Janoo, an economist and the first Democrat to enter the race, has positioned herself as an outsider focused on structural economic change and a “wellbeing economy,” drawing support in…
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Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ohio’s open gubernatorial race remains competitive because both nominees lack prior statewide elected experience, with polls showing Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy essentially tied in recent surveys. The Cook Political Report shifted its assessment to toss-up in July after data indicated no clear advantage for the Republican in a state without an incumbent. Ramaswamy’s substantial…
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Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?
UPND holds a commanding position in the Zambia National Assembly election market due to its status as the incumbent party under President Hakainde Hichilema, who leads polls by wide margins of 58-63% in head-to-head matchups ahead of the August 13 vote. Recent alliance expansions incorporating smaller parties, combined with opposition fragmentation around the Tonse Alliance’s…
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil exports have kept Kharg Island central to military and diplomatic calculations since the 2026 conflict began. US strikes hit military targets on the island in March and April without touching oil facilities, while Iran reinforced defenses with additional troops, air systems, and mines. President Trump…
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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Houthi threats and actions have sharply reduced commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since mid-July 2026. Iran-aligned Houthi forces announced a maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping, followed by missile strikes on oil tankers and warnings that prompted multiple vessels to reroute or turn back. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to single digits on…
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Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat?
Maxine Waters, the longtime Democratic incumbent representing California’s 43rd congressional district since 1990, advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Cristian Morales. The district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and historical margins exceeding 70 percent for the incumbent in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic…