Platform: Polymarket
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Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
The August 12, 2026 general election drives the current market pricing, with incumbent Prime Minister Mark Brown of the Cook Islands Party holding an 89% implied probability after leading recent preferred-leader polling at 35% amid 32% undecided voters. His position reflects the party’s 2022 parliamentary majority secured with independent support, combined with April 2026 stabilization…
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Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
**Traders see Elon Musk’s posting pace this weekend as moderate at best, with the 40-64 tweet range (roughly 13–21 posts per day) commanding a 53.5% implied probability.** Recent trackers show daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s to mid-30s through early August 2026, and a single-day count of 41 posts on August 9 fits squarely inside…
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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, formed after the 2025 federal election, has advanced key measures including the 2027 budget framework and health-system savings despite persistent economic weakness and record-low personal approval ratings near 15%. Traders assign an 83.5% probability that he remains chancellor through 2026 because Germany’s parliamentary system requires a constructive no-confidence vote or coalition…
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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?
US-Iran nuclear diplomacy continues to center on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile amid stalled talks and recent military strikes on sites like Fordow and Isfahan. US negotiators have pressed for physical transfer of the material to the United States, facility dismantlement, and extended enrichment limits, while Iranian officials reject these terms and favor…
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Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?
The TX-05 race centers on incumbent Republican Lance Gooden seeking re-election in a district encompassing southeastern Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs and East Texas counties. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+10 partisan voting index and Gooden’s 64% win in 2024. Redistricting added some urban precincts but preserved the overall Republican baseline, reinforced…
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Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
KPRF holds an overwhelming market lead for second place in Russia’s September 2026 State Duma elections because of its established regional organizations, historical voter base, and consistent polling presence alongside LDPR as the main contenders behind United Russia. Recent VTsIOM surveys have shown New People briefly leading or tying at around 13 percent, ahead of…
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Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Trump’s Truth Social activity during the August 7-14 window reflects high baseline volume from his second-term patterns, averaging roughly 18 posts daily in 2025 with frequent late-night clusters and occasional daily spikes above 100. The tight clustering of probabilities around 140-199 posts stems from moderate ongoing news flow on foreign policy, domestic priorities, and platform-related…