Platform: Polymarket
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Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains its dominant position in the September 2026 State Duma election through established control of administrative resources, party structures, and single-mandate districts, reinforced by recent leadership adjustments and preparations that include candidate list formation led by figures such as Dmitry Medvedev. The party benefits from the mixed electoral system, three-day voting procedures, and…
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Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
Iran and Oman are advancing talks on joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran pushing to collect mandatory service fees or tolls estimated at 5-7% of cargo value from commercial vessels. Recent proposals include voluntary contributions or temporary no-charge passages during demining, yet US sanctions on Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority and insurance…
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Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day (extendable) framework for talks after months of conflict that disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. The MoU calls for immediate steps on navigation rights, sanctions relief tied to verified nuclear steps, working groups on oversight and missiles, and de-escalation in…
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Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Ongoing military tensions and incomplete implementation of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding explain trader expectations that no final U.S.-Iran agreement will reach UN Security Council endorsement by year-end. The MoU outlined a 60-day (extendable) window for nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz reopening in exchange for ending hostilities, with explicit reference…
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Trader consensus on a low probability of Chinese military action against Taiwan by December 2026 reflects the brief remaining timeframe and absence of observable large-scale amphibious preparations. Beijing has emphasized grey-zone coercion through reduced but persistent air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and law-enforcement activities, while Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills test reservist…
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Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Murmansk Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Murmansk Oblast as a result of this election. The number of seats will include all members of…