Platform: Polymarket
-
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
-
Will Francesca Hong win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
Francesca Hong leads the market for the Democratic primary winner in Kenosha County at 79.5% implied probability, ahead of David Crowley at 19%, as her grassroots campaign and polling surge position her as the statewide frontrunner heading into the August 11 vote. Recent developments include Hong’s consistent lead in late surveys driven by appeals on…
-
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
**The special Republican primary to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on South Carolina’s November ballot remains tightly contested on election day, with Darline Graham Nordone holding a modest lead in trader pricing.** Her position stems from her interim appointment by Gov. Henry McMaster, family name recognition, and President Trump’s endorsement, yet the crowded field…
-
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Trump’s established pattern of high-volume posting on Truth Social, often exceeding 15-20 posts daily with frequent short bursts and AI-generated content, forms the core driver behind the market’s emphasis on 180-199 or 200+ posts for the August 4-11 window. Historical data, including over 100 posts in single days and hundreds monthly, supports trader consensus around…
-
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Peggy Flanagan holds the leading position in trader consensus for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary due to consistent polling advantages over Rep. Angie Craig in the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Recent surveys, including one showing a 46-32 percent lead among likely primary voters, reflect Flanagan’s stronger support among progressive and Native American…
-
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
**Traders see Elon Musk’s posting pace this weekend as moderate at best, with the 40-64 tweet range (roughly 13–21 posts per day) commanding a 53.5% implied probability.** Recent trackers show daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s to mid-30s through early August 2026, and a single-day count of 41 posts on August 9 fits squarely inside…
-
Will Danae Figueroa win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…
-
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace in early August, including a 41-post day on August 9 amid responses to news cycles on vaccines, AI model comparisons, Tesla Robotaxi features, and international travel comments, underpins trader focus on the 160-199 tweet bands. Steady engagement with X platform topics, company developments, and current events sustains this volume without…
-
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
US intelligence assessments released in early August 2026 indicate Russia could attempt a limited incursion or hybrid probe against NATO’s eastern flank, such as the Baltics or Poland, as early as autumn 2026 through 2029 to test Article 5 commitments without triggering full alliance response. These warnings occur amid Russia’s ongoing Ukraine campaign, NATO’s accelerated…
-
Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?
President Aleksandar Vučić’s June 2026 announcement that he would resign within weeks and call early parliamentary and presidential elections has become the central driver of trader expectations for National Assembly dissolution. Ongoing mass protests and institutional pressure have reinforced the likelihood of a snap vote before the regular December 2027 deadline, with the president holding…