Platform: Polymarket
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Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
Hakainde Hichilema holds a commanding position in the Zambia presidential election market ahead of the August 13 vote, driven by incumbency advantages and a late-2025 survey showing 55% intended support amid ongoing economic recovery and debt restructuring efforts. Opposition consolidation around Brian Mundubile of the Tonse Pamodzi Alliance has produced the clearest challenger after Edgar…
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Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
The narrow Republican Senate majority of 53-47 heading into the 2026 midterms keeps the contest tightly balanced, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to flip control. Multiple open seats from incumbent retirements on both sides, combined with competitive races in swing states and special elections in places like Florida and Ohio, create…
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Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
The broad field of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, revealed in April, has left trader sentiment fragmented with no dominant frontrunner on Polymarket. Yulia Navalnaya edges ahead at 8.5% implied probability due to her high-profile continuation of Russian opposition work following her husband’s death, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy and organizations like UNRWA or…
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Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”…
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Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…
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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program center on the fate of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, with Washington seeking limits or removal in exchange for sanctions relief and other concessions. Draft understandings reached in May and June 2026 outlined mechanisms for Iran to dilute or address the material—potentially on its…
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Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
Trilateral US-mediated meetings between Russian, Ukrainian, and American envoys in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February 2026 represented the first formal diplomatic contacts since 2022, focusing on practical issues such as prisoner exchanges and humanitarian measures, though core disputes over territory and security guarantees produced no breakthroughs. Negotiations stalled after late February amid…