Platform: Polymarket
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Iran leadership change by August 15?
Iran’s Supreme Leader succession unfolded rapidly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March following an interim tripartite council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian. Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile since taking office, with state media…
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Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in August 2026?
President Trump’s August 2026 schedule centers on domestic travel and administration business, including multiple visits to Trump National Golf Club properties in New Jersey and California, a Las Vegas appearance promoting tax-cut policies, and White House events such as executive orders, policy meetings, and the swearing-in of the attorney general. These activities align with midterm…
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Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Francesca Hong has consolidated a commanding lead in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic primary for governor through strong grassroots momentum, endorsements from progressive organizations including Democratic Socialists of America chapters, and voter support for her populist platform on issues such as opposing new data centers, expanding public services, and Medicare for All. Recent polling shows her…
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2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Traders see the 2026 midterms as closely contested because Democrats hold an early edge in generic ballot polling and special election swings while Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers under the historical midterm penalty for the president’s party. With 35 Senate seats up—including 22 Republican-held—and Democrats needing a net gain of roughly four seats…
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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Recent UAP disclosure efforts under the Trump administration, including the PURSUE program and multiple tranches of declassified records released through August 2026, represent the main catalyst for trader interest. These batches include historical documents, images, and videos from agencies such as the Pentagon, FBI, and CIA, yet contain no official statement affirming extraterrestrial life or…
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Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
**Traders see Elon Musk’s posting pace this weekend as moderate at best, with the 40-64 tweet range (roughly 13–21 posts per day) commanding a 53.5% implied probability.** Recent trackers show daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s to mid-30s through early August 2026, and a single-day count of 41 posts on August 9 fits squarely inside…
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Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?
Luke Bronin holds a strong lead in the Connecticut 1st District Democratic primary due to his victory securing the party endorsement at the May 2026 district convention, where he narrowly defeated 14-term incumbent John Larson. Bronin has significantly outraised and outspent Larson, positioning the race around calls for generational change against the 78-year-old incumbent’s long…
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Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
**Traders see Elon Musk’s posting pace this weekend as moderate at best, with the 40-64 tweet range (roughly 13–21 posts per day) commanding a 53.5% implied probability.** Recent trackers show daily averages in the low-to-mid 20s to mid-30s through early August 2026, and a single-day count of 41 posts on August 9 fits squarely inside…
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Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Tensions between India and Pakistan remain shaped by the May 2025 four-day conflict, which began with Indian missile strikes under Operation Sindoor following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir and ended in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Over a year later, no comparable cross-border military actions have occurred, with traders viewing the absence of fresh triggers and…
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Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…