Platform: Polymarket
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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
The Islamabad Memorandum signed in mid-June 2026 created a 60-day negotiation window for a final US-Iran accord after the recent conflict, including commitments on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and nuclear restraints. Progress has stalled amid reciprocal allegations of violations, including Iranian strikes on shipping, US responses, and disputes over Lebanon and Hezbollah. Iran’s…
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Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
**Ukraine’s ongoing martial law, extended through October 31, 2026, bars presidential elections under the constitution and parliamentary approvals.** Zelenskyy’s 2019 term formally expired in May 2024, yet constitutional provisions keep the incumbent in office until a successor is sworn in after martial law lifts. No ceasefire or security guarantees have emerged to enable voting, and…
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Will David Crowley win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
Francesca Hong holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, including in Waukesha County, driven by consistent polling advantages and a broad grassroots campaign that has outperformed expectations in suburban areas. Her position reflects strong organization and voter consolidation among Democratic primary participants statewide, despite the open seat following incumbent Tony Evers’…
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Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization with Israel on concrete progress toward an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, a stance reaffirmed in official statements through 2025-2026 amid the aftermath of the Gaza conflict and related regional tensions. Riyadh has highlighted domestic public opposition and assessed greater strategic risks than benefits…
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Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
Matt Little holds a strong lead in the MN-02 Democratic primary trader consensus due to securing the DFL endorsement as a former state senator and Lakeville mayor, providing institutional backing in a competitive race to succeed Rep. Angie Craig. State Sen. Matt Klein has narrowed the gap through substantial outside spending exceeding $2 million from…
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Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Peggy Flanagan holds the leading position in trader consensus for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary due to consistent polling advantages over Rep. Angie Craig in the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Recent surveys, including one showing a 46-32 percent lead among likely primary voters, reflect Flanagan’s stronger support among progressive and Native American…