Platform: Polymarket
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2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Traders see the 2026 midterms as closely contested because Democrats hold an early edge in generic ballot polling and special election swings while Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers under the historical midterm penalty for the president’s party. With 35 Senate seats up—including 22 Republican-held—and Democrats needing a net gain of roughly four seats…
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Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace in early August, including a 41-post day on August 9 amid responses to news cycles on vaccines, AI model comparisons, Tesla Robotaxi features, and international travel comments, underpins trader focus on the 160-199 tweet bands. Steady engagement with X platform topics, company developments, and current events sustains this volume without…
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Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
Putin, aged 73, holds firm control over Russia’s personalist authoritarian system following his 2024 reelection and 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits, enabling potential service until 2036 with the next presidential vote scheduled for 2030. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to an exit by late 2026 or mid-2027 due to the absence of designated…
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US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain centered on resolving the nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for a comprehensive agreement on highly enriched uranium stockpiles, uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and related security issues after months of conflict and indirect talks. As of early August 2026,…
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Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democrats hold an 86.5% implied probability of winning House control in the November 2026 midterms, reflecting a consistent lead in generic ballot polling of roughly five to seven points and structural headwinds for the president’s party. Republicans defend a narrow majority after 2024, but must overcome historical patterns in which the opposition typically gains seats…
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Iran and Oman are advancing talks on joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran pushing to collect mandatory service fees or tolls estimated at 5-7% of cargo value from commercial vessels. Recent proposals include voluntary contributions or temporary no-charge passages during demining, yet US sanctions on Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority and insurance…
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Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Incumbent Karen Bass holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the November runoff due to her established citywide support base and advantages as sitting mayor seeking a second term. Nithya Raman advanced from the June primary by overtaking other challengers to secure the second spot, positioning the race as a contest between the moderate…