Platform: Polymarket
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US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?
US officials have consistently rejected proposals for mandatory transit fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway, citing legal barriers under maritime conventions and longstanding policy on freedom of navigation. In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly proposed a 20% cargo-value reimbursement for US naval protection before reversing course in favor of separate…
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US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain centered on resolving the nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for a comprehensive agreement on highly enriched uranium stockpiles, uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and related security issues after months of conflict and indirect talks. As of early August 2026,…
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Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?
Luke Bronin holds a strong lead in the Connecticut 1st District Democratic primary due to his victory securing the party endorsement at the May 2026 district convention, where he narrowly defeated 14-term incumbent John Larson. Bronin has significantly outraised and outspent Larson, positioning the race around calls for generational change against the 78-year-old incumbent’s long…
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Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
Heightened geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade, continue to shape trader positioning in related prediction markets. Iran’s August 2026 parliamentary push to restrict U.S. and Israeli vessels while imposing transit tolls, paired with the U.S. Central Command’s redirection of over 55 commercial ships under…
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
Recent indirect diplomacy through Oman and other intermediaries has shaped trader views on the timing of a next formal US-Iran round, following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland. US officials, including President Trump, have described ongoing messaging and a “last chance” framework tied to the prior MOU, while Iranian statements…
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Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains its dominant position in the September 2026 State Duma election through established control of administrative resources, party structures, and single-mandate districts, reinforced by recent leadership adjustments and preparations that include candidate list formation led by figures such as Dmitry Medvedev. The party benefits from the mixed electoral system, three-day voting procedures, and…
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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
Recent bilateral negotiations between Iran and Oman have advanced rapidly toward a joint protocol on shipping lanes and navigation oversight in the Strait of Hormuz, with geographic coordinates reportedly agreed and a draft statement in final review as of early August 2026. Iranian officials describe the process as entering its final stages while emphasizing that…
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US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain centered on resolving the nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for a comprehensive agreement on highly enriched uranium stockpiles, uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and related security issues after months of conflict and indirect talks. As of early August 2026,…