Platform: Polymarket
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Israel maintains a military presence in southern Lebanon amid the 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreed in April 2026 and extended in June. Withdrawal hinges on Hezbollah’s full evacuation south of the Litani River, disarmament verification, and Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control of designated zones. Recent incidents, including an early August…
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Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Persistent US-Iran geopolitical tensions and recent attacks on commercial vessels, including the August 8 missile strike near the Strait, underpin the 54.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026. Traders price in sustained disruptions to the critical oil and LNG corridor—handling roughly 20% of global seaborne crude—following the breakdown of the June…
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Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Early positioning in the 2028 presidential race reflects a wide-open field more than two years before primaries, with no formal candidacies declared and traders pricing in uncertainty around party dynamics, voter coalitions, and potential primary challenges. JD Vance holds the lead as sitting vice president with institutional advantages and reported private support from former President…
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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, has publicly stated multiple times in 2026 that he is prepared to return to Iran as soon as feasible—potentially even before any regime transition—to support a secular democratic shift, citing unrest after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February death and U.S.-Israel strikes. Trader consensus on near-term entry…
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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Trump’s renewed push for U.S. acquisition of Greenland since early 2025 has produced diplomatic friction with Denmark and local Greenlandic authorities but no transfer of sovereignty, as both have repeatedly rejected purchase offers or alternative arrangements such as a compact of free association. Recent developments, including tariff threats later withdrawn after Davos talks, appointment of…
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Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?
International efforts to stabilize Gaza center on a US-brokered ceasefire and UN-endorsed plan authorizing an International Stabilization Force (ISF) to monitor compliance, support Hamas disarmament, and facilitate Israeli withdrawal. Israel’s security cabinet approved the legal framework for a multinational force in late July 2026, while the Board of Peace announced a conditional disarmament and phased…
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Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
Putin, aged 73, holds firm control over Russia’s personalist authoritarian system following his 2024 reelection and 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits, enabling potential service until 2036 with the next presidential vote scheduled for 2030. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to an exit by late 2026 or mid-2027 due to the absence of designated…
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Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short…