Platform: Polymarket
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Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Elon Musk’s established high-volume posting cadence on X—typically 20-30 tweets per day amid business updates, replies, and commentary—anchors trader consensus around the 160-219 tweet range for the August 11-18 window, with those three brackets holding the highest implied probabilities. Recent daily tallies, including 41 posts on August 9 tied to Starlink and company topics, reflect…
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Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
Tlaxcala’s 2027 gubernatorial contest remains wide open more than a year before voters decide, producing a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered among frontrunners. Alfonso Sánchez García and Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera lead trader pricing, reflecting their early positioning and visibility, while dozens of other declared or potential candidates dilute support across the…
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Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing at 31% after a July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction yet shortened her eligibility ban enough to clear a path for her 2027 candidacy, which she immediately confirmed while pursuing further appeals. This development has consolidated support for the National Rally amid voter fatigue with Macron-era…
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Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Byron Donalds maintains a commanding lead in the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, reflected in trader consensus at 98.6% implied probability. Recent polls show him at 43–50% among likely GOP voters, roughly 30 points ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, with James Fishback and others in single digits. Key drivers include President Trump’s…
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Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Byron Donalds maintains a commanding lead in the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, reflected in trader consensus at 98.6% implied probability. Recent polls show him at 43–50% among likely GOP voters, roughly 30 points ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, with James Fishback and others in single digits. Key drivers include President Trump’s…
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Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro remains the leading outcome in trader assessments for Venezuela’s head of state at the end of 2026, reflecting institutional continuity after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces. Venezuelan state bodies, including the Supreme Tribunal and National Assembly, continue to recognize him as the constitutional president while Delcy Rodríguez serves only in an…
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Recent diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Pakistan are the main driver behind current trader positioning on whether direct Israel-Iran hostilities remain paused. A June memorandum of understanding aimed to end large-scale fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Lebanon operations, and set a timeline for nuclear talks, but Iran’s July strikes on commercial vessels prompted…
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Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus as the likely next Israeli prime minister following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, reflecting his recent polling surge with the Yashar party, which has drawn even or ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Eizenkot’s positioning stems from his record as former IDF chief of staff, personal losses during the Gaza…