Platform: Polymarket
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Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
Mojtaba Khamenei has maintained a low public profile since assuming Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 following the strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei. Prolonged absence tied to reported injuries has fueled speculation about his health and capacity to govern, with state media issuing only written statements and occasional undated footage until a short…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Mojtaba Khamenei has maintained a low public profile since assuming Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 following the strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei. Prolonged absence tied to reported injuries has fueled speculation about his health and capacity to govern, with state media issuing only written statements and occasional undated footage until a short…
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Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
**The special Republican primary to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on South Carolina’s November ballot remains tightly contested on election day, with Darline Graham Nordone holding a modest lead in trader pricing.** Her position stems from her interim appointment by Gov. Henry McMaster, family name recognition, and President Trump’s endorsement, yet the crowded field…
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Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democrats hold an 86.5% implied probability of winning House control in the November 2026 midterms, reflecting a consistent lead in generic ballot polling of roughly five to seven points and structural headwinds for the president’s party. Republicans defend a narrow majority after 2024, but must overcome historical patterns in which the opposition typically gains seats…
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Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Lisa Demuth leads the Minnesota Republican primary for governor as House speaker with strong fundraising and establishment support, positioning her ahead of Mike Lindell in trader consensus despite recent polls showing a close race. Lindell gained ground after securing Donald Trump’s endorsement and stepping down as MyPillow CEO to focus on the campaign, though questions…
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Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Xi Jinping’s entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party, Central Military Commission, and security apparatus sustains the overwhelming trader consensus against his removal before 2027. Formal term-limit adjustments years ago removed institutional succession timelines, while loyalist appointments have aligned elite networks for continuity ahead of the 21st Party Congress. No major health disclosures, factional challenges,…
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?
Netanyahu has repeatedly confirmed his intention to address the UN General Assembly during its high-level debate in New York in September 2026, aligning with his long-standing pattern of annual appearances unless security concerns intervene. The 81st UNGA session opens in early September, with the main debate phase beginning around September 22. Recent statements from New…