Platform: Polymarket
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Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Putin, aged 73, holds firm control over Russia’s personalist authoritarian system following his 2024 reelection and 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits, enabling potential service until 2036 with the next presidential vote scheduled for 2030. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to an exit by late 2026 or mid-2027 due to the absence of designated…
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Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Lisa Demuth leads the Minnesota Republican primary for governor as House speaker with strong fundraising and establishment support, positioning her ahead of Mike Lindell in trader consensus despite recent polls showing a close race. Lindell gained ground after securing Donald Trump’s endorsement and stepping down as MyPillow CEO to focus on the campaign, though questions…
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Recent indirect diplomacy through Oman and other intermediaries has shaped trader views on the timing of a next formal US-Iran round, following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical talks in Switzerland. US officials, including President Trump, have described ongoing messaging and a “last chance” framework tied to the prior MOU, while Iranian statements…
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US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain centered on resolving the nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for a comprehensive agreement on highly enriched uranium stockpiles, uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and related security issues after months of conflict and indirect talks. As of early August 2026,…
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Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain centered on resolving the nuclear program following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which established a 60-day window for a comprehensive agreement on highly enriched uranium stockpiles, uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and related security issues after months of conflict and indirect talks. As of early August 2026,…
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Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore…
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Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The tight race between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and J.D. Vance reflects trader assessment of their respective administration roles and appeal within Republican primary dynamics. As HHS secretary, Kennedy has consolidated support among voters prioritizing health policy shifts and outsider credentials, while Vance, serving as vice president, benefits from institutional ties and continuity with the…
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Recent diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Pakistan are the main driver behind current trader positioning on whether direct Israel-Iran hostilities remain paused. A June memorandum of understanding aimed to end large-scale fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Lebanon operations, and set a timeline for nuclear talks, but Iran’s July strikes on commercial vessels prompted…
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Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?
Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts, artillery strikes, and drone operations targeting Malokaterynivka, a frontline village in Zaporizhzhia Oblast northwest of Orikhiv, without confirmed territorial entry or control as of mid-2026. Nearby Russian gains east of the settlement in January 2026 and ongoing pressure along the southern front reflect incremental advances amid slower overall…