Platform: Polymarket
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Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore…
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Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Nigel Farage holds a commanding position in the Clacton by-election market due to his established voter base in the constituency, where he secured the seat for Reform UK in the 2024 general election. The by-election, triggered by his July 2026 resignation amid scrutiny over financial disclosures, features limited opposition from major parties, with 34 candidates…
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Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?
Russia has conducted multiple long-range missile and drone barrages against Kyiv and surrounding areas in recent weeks, including a major strike on August 5 that killed at least 17 civilians and earlier attacks in late July that caused additional casualties. These operations target energy infrastructure and military sites while exploiting reported shortages of Ukrainian Patriot…
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Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk’s posting pace this week has kept the 160-179 and 180-199 buckets nearly tied, with the former edging ahead at 50.5% implied probability. High-volume days early in the period, including spikes above 30 posts, combined with steady commentary on AI tools like Grok, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political topics, have anchored trader expectations…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Houthi threats and actions have sharply reduced commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since mid-July 2026. Iran-aligned Houthi forces announced a maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping, followed by missile strikes on oil tankers and warnings that prompted multiple vessels to reroute or turn back. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to single digits on…
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Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk’s posting pace this week has kept the 160-179 and 180-199 buckets nearly tied, with the former edging ahead at 50.5% implied probability. High-volume days early in the period, including spikes above 30 posts, combined with steady commentary on AI tools like Grok, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political topics, have anchored trader expectations…
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Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore…
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Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
The crowded 10-candidate field for South Carolina’s August 11 special Republican primary, triggered by Lindsey Graham’s death, has produced a fragmented contest with no candidate positioned for a first-round majority. Darline Graham Nordone benefits from her interim Senate appointment by Governor Henry McMaster and President Trump’s endorsement, yet recent straw polls show Reps. Russell Fry…
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US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
The 60-day negotiation window established in the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which formalized a ceasefire and launched talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, nears its mid-August conclusion amid stalled technical progress. Recent developments include Iran’s denial of direct U.S. engagement and emphasis on bilateral Oman talks over Hormuz…