Platform: Polymarket
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Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore…
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Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
Ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026 have prompted Iranian missile and drone strikes on US assets and civilian infrastructure in Kuwait and other Gulf states as part of a strategy of horizontal escalation. These attacks, including repeated targeting of power facilities and bases in July 2026 amid renewed hostilities after a brief…
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus as the likely next Israeli prime minister following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, reflecting his recent polling surge with the Yashar party, which has drawn even or ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Eizenkot’s positioning stems from his record as former IDF chief of staff, personal losses during the Gaza…
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil exports have kept Kharg Island central to military and diplomatic calculations since the 2026 conflict began. US strikes hit military targets on the island in March and April without touching oil facilities, while Iran reinforced defenses with additional troops, air systems, and mines. President Trump…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Byron Donalds maintains a commanding lead in the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, reflected in trader consensus at 98.6% implied probability. Recent polls show him at 43–50% among likely GOP voters, roughly 30 points ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, with James Fishback and others in single digits. Key drivers include President Trump’s…
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Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk’s posting pace this week has kept the 160-179 and 180-199 buckets nearly tied, with the former edging ahead at 50.5% implied probability. High-volume days early in the period, including spikes above 30 posts, combined with steady commentary on AI tools like Grok, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political topics, have anchored trader expectations…
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Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore…
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Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk’s posting pace this week has kept the 160-179 and 180-199 buckets nearly tied, with the former edging ahead at 50.5% implied probability. High-volume days early in the period, including spikes above 30 posts, combined with steady commentary on AI tools like Grok, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political topics, have anchored trader expectations…