Platform: Polymarket
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
**Persistent geopolitical stalemate and hardened Iranian demands have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic far below normal levels into mid-August 2026, supporting the 85.5% market-implied probability that flows will not normalize by September 30.** Since the February 28, 2026 closure amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, daily transits have remained at roughly 10 vessels versus a pre-crisis baseline…
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Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore…
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated breakdowns in ceasefires and maritime agreements have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 3% of pre-2026 levels through early August, with naval blockades, vessel attacks, and elevated war-risk insurance sustaining the disruption. Trader sentiment on the “No” side at 53.5% reflects persistent geopolitical friction and slow diplomatic progress since…
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Ongoing diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar, focus on salvaging the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after July attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz prompted the United States to reimpose its naval blockade. US President Trump has described negotiations as advancing yet issued warnings…
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Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk’s posting pace this week has kept the 160-179 and 180-199 buckets nearly tied, with the former edging ahead at 50.5% implied probability. High-volume days early in the period, including spikes above 30 posts, combined with steady commentary on AI tools like Grok, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political topics, have anchored trader expectations…
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
**Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to “No” on a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 primarily because the 2026 conflict has remained limited to airstrikes, naval actions, and Strait of Hormuz brinkmanship rather than ground operations.** Following the February–May phase of Operation Epic Fury and subsequent exchanges, U.S. policy under President Trump has emphasized…
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Ongoing diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar, focus on salvaging the June 2026 memorandum of understanding after July attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz prompted the United States to reimpose its naval blockade. US President Trump has described negotiations as advancing yet issued warnings…
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Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?
Following the end of the 2026 Iran war and associated protests, authorities lifted the record 88-day nationwide internet blackout on May 26, 2026, restoring partial global access after traffic had fallen to near zero in late February. Iranian officials have since maintained layered filtering through the National Information Network, with ongoing restrictions on international sites…
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Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
Nigel Farage holds a commanding position in the Clacton by-election market due to his established voter base in the constituency, where he secured the seat for Reform UK in the 2024 general election. The by-election, triggered by his July 2026 resignation amid scrutiny over financial disclosures, features limited opposition from major parties, with 34 candidates…
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Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…