Platform: Polymarket
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Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Elon Musk’s posting pace this week has kept the 160-179 and 180-199 buckets nearly tied, with the former edging ahead at 50.5% implied probability. High-volume days early in the period, including spikes above 30 posts, combined with steady commentary on AI tools like Grok, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and political topics, have anchored trader expectations…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader assessments for securing the most State Duma seats, driven by its entrenched administrative mobilization across single-mandate districts, the mixed electoral system favoring the incumbent party, and consistent polling advantages around 35-48 percent. Recent preparations, including a party list headed by Dmitry Medvedev alongside other pro-government figures, underscore…
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Persistent US-Iran military tensions have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic since late February 2026, with daily transits at just 2–8 vessels versus a pre-crisis average of 60–73, representing only 3% of normal throughput per IMF PortWatch data. This chokepoint normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, contributing…
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Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent U.S. economic data and the July FOMC decision have shaped trader views on the September 15-16 meeting. The committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a hike amid sticky inflation. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent, aided by lower energy…
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
Persistent US-Iran military tensions have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic since late February 2026, with daily transits at just 2–8 vessels versus a pre-crisis average of 60–73, representing only 3% of normal throughput per IMF PortWatch data. This chokepoint normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, contributing…
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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official…