Platform: Polymarket
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience through the 2025–2026 conflict with Israel and the United States, followed by domestic protests, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Official statements and reporting confirm the government maintained control of key institutions, security forces, and economic infrastructure despite leadership losses and infrastructure strains. Elite infighting and economic…
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Recent diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Pakistan are the main driver behind current trader positioning on whether direct Israel-Iran hostilities remain paused. A June memorandum of understanding aimed to end large-scale fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Lebanon operations, and set a timeline for nuclear talks, but Iran’s July strikes on commercial vessels prompted…
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Trump out as President by August 31?
The near-certain trader consensus on Trump remaining in office through August 31 stems from the high constitutional thresholds required for removal, including two-thirds Senate votes for conviction after House impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment with cabinet and congressional majorities. No active impeachment proceedings, special counsel actions, or documented cabinet efforts exist in the…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko from the September parliamentary ballot after upholding a lawsuit by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party that cited alleged violations of campaigning rules, foreign funding claims, and candidate disqualifications. This decision follows months of documented administrative barriers, including the barring of dozens of Yabloko candidates, fines for…
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
US naval enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in mid-July after a brief truce collapsed, remains active as of early August, with CENTCOM reporting repeated vessel redirections, boardings, and limited strikes on coastal targets. Trader odds for a US announcement ending the measure by…
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Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Lula da Silva holds the strongest position in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential race as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, backed by recent expansions of debt-relief programs and fuel subsidies that have helped stabilize voter sentiment. Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and others show him leading first-round intentions at 39-44% and defeating…
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Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
The Democratic presidential nomination field for 2028 remains wide open, with traders pricing Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a tight cluster near the top. This reflects an early post-2024 cycle environment lacking an obvious frontrunner or consensus choice among party figures. Multiple governors and senators continue to build profiles through state-level roles,…
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Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Recent UAP disclosure efforts under the Trump administration, including the PURSUE program and multiple tranches of declassified records released through August 2026, represent the main catalyst for trader interest. These batches include historical documents, images, and videos from agencies such as the Pentagon, FBI, and CIA, yet contain no official statement affirming extraterrestrial life or…