Political Market Report

President

The presidency

The 2028 nominations, the general, and the will-he-won’t-he contracts on the current occupant. Longshot candidate markets price a lot of fantasy — read them as attention, not forecast.

US presidential markets on the move

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

Most traded US presidential markets

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

All US presidential markets

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116 markets found

Market Platform Type Yes Odds 24h Volume Closes
Will David Crowley win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? Polymarket Presidential 19% +441 ▼ 19.5 pp $3K Aug 11, 2026
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 1% +13233 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 1% +13233 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 2% +5028 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee? Polymarket Presidential 55% -122 ▼ 1.5 pp $2K Aug 18, 2026
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Polymarket Presidential 1% +8233 ▼ 0.9 pp $2K Aug 11, 2026
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 44% +126 ▲ 0.4 pp $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? Polymarket Presidential 59% -145 ▲ 29.1 pp $2K Aug 11, 2026
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +28471 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 1% +18082 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Polymarket Presidential 39% +160 ▲ 3.0 pp $2K Aug 18, 2026
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 60% -147 ▼ 1.0 pp $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 1% +10426 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 5% +1805 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 1% +15285 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee? Polymarket Presidential 87% -691 ▲ 6.9 pp $2K Aug 11, 2026
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +28471 flat $2K Nov 7, 2028
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%? Polymarket Presidential 13% +646 ▲ 3.9 pp $2K Aug 11, 2026

Presidential races elsewhere

Brazil, France, and everywhere else holding a presidential election. Kept separate so the 2028 boards above stay readable.

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

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74 markets found

Market Platform Type Yes Odds 24h Volume Closes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? Polymarket Presidential 3% +3604 ▲ 2.2 pp $1K Oct 4, 2026
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 flat $997 Oct 4, 2026
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Polymarket Presidential 9% +1024 ▲ 0.2 pp $982 Dec 31, 2026
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 2% +4155 ▲ 1.1 pp $943 Oct 24, 2027
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 77% -326 ▼ 0.5 pp $815 Nov 30, 2026
Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary? Polymarket Presidential 0% +28471 ▲ 0.3 pp $804 Aug 18, 2026
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 3% +3075 flat $785 Apr 30, 2027
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 flat $741 Apr 30, 2027
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? Polymarket Presidential 5% +1752 ▲ 4.7 pp $732 Oct 4, 2026
Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary? Polymarket Presidential 100% -28471 ▲ 0.1 pp $713 Aug 18, 2026
Will the Workers’ Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Polymarket Presidential 99% -7900 ▲ 0.1 pp $674 Aug 15, 2026
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil’s presidential runoff? Polymarket Presidential 2% +5456 ▼ 0.6 pp $661 Oct 4, 2026
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 1% +9424 flat $613 Oct 4, 2026
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 27% +277 ▲ 2.5 pp $601 Oct 4, 2026