| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Polymarket |
International |
95% |
-1718 |
▲ 0.5 pp |
$94K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
9% |
+1076 |
▲ 1.0 pp |
$90K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Polymarket |
Other |
1% |
+11665 |
flat |
$79K |
Aug 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Polymarket |
Other |
47% |
+115 |
▼ 1.0 pp |
$79K |
Dec 31, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Polymarket |
International |
94% |
-1438 |
▲ 3.0 pp |
$78K |
Aug 14, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
0% |
+66567 |
▼ 1.1 pp |
$78K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Polymarket |
Other |
17% |
+506 |
▲ 1.0 pp |
$76K |
Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
51% |
-102 |
▲ 31.0 pp |
$73K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Polymarket |
Other |
15% |
+590 |
▼ 3.0 pp |
$73K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Polymarket |
International |
66% |
-190 |
▼ 2.0 pp |
$72K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
Polymarket |
Presidential |
1% |
+14186 |
▲ 0.2 pp |
$67K |
Aug 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
4% |
+2497 |
▼ 21.7 pp |
$65K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Polymarket |
International |
0% |
+39900 |
▼ 0.1 pp |
$63K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Polymarket |
International |
33% |
+208 |
▼ 1.0 pp |
$61K |
Dec 31, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Polymarket |
Other |
4% |
+2310 |
▼ 0.6 pp |
$59K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? |
Polymarket |
International |
5% |
+2122 |
▼ 2.0 pp |
$58K |
Aug 13, 2026 |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Polymarket |
International |
0% |
+39900 |
▲ 0.1 pp |
$58K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Polymarket |
Presidential |
0% |
+22122 |
▲ 0.1 pp |
$55K |
Nov 7, 2028 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
Polymarket |
Other |
1% |
+6797 |
▼ 0.5 pp |
$55K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Polymarket |
International |
2% |
+5028 |
▲ 0.3 pp |
$51K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? |
Polymarket |
Senate |
60% |
-147 |
▲ 1.0 pp |
$51K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Polymarket |
Other |
26% |
+292 |
▼ 13.5 pp |
$50K |
Aug 20, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
Polymarket |
International |
58% |
-138 |
▼ 7.5 pp |
$50K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Polymarket |
Other |
4% |
+2226 |
▲ 0.4 pp |
$48K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
45% |
+125 |
▼ 4.0 pp |
$47K |
Aug 11, 2026 |