Political Market Report

President

The presidency

The 2028 nominations, the general, and the will-he-won’t-he contracts on the current occupant. Longshot candidate markets price a lot of fantasy — read them as attention, not forecast.

US presidential markets on the move

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

Most traded US presidential markets

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

All US presidential markets

Reset

116 markets found

Market Platform Type Yes Odds 24h Volume Closes
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 ▲ 0.1 pp $352K Nov 7, 2028
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $253K Nov 7, 2028
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 ▲ 0.1 pp $204K Nov 7, 2028
Trump out as President by August 31? Polymarket Presidential 1% +18082 ▼ 0.1 pp $129K Aug 31, 2026
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Polymarket Presidential 1% +14186 ▲ 0.2 pp $67K Aug 18, 2026
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +22122 ▲ 0.1 pp $55K Nov 7, 2028
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 2% +4155 ▼ 0.2 pp $43K Nov 7, 2028
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Polymarket Presidential 37% +174 ▼ 4.5 pp $39K Aug 11, 2026
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Polymarket Presidential 65% -182 ▲ 6.5 pp $38K Aug 11, 2026
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 3% +3179 flat $32K Nov 7, 2028
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 2% +4445 flat $23K Nov 7, 2028
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 ▼ 0.1 pp $23K Nov 7, 2028
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 12% +703 flat $19K Nov 7, 2028
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 2% +6352 flat $18K Nov 7, 2028
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +22122 flat $16K Nov 7, 2028
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 16% +527 ▼ 0.1 pp $14K Nov 7, 2028
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 15% +573 ▼ 0.2 pp $14K Nov 7, 2028
Will David Crowley win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? Polymarket Presidential 2% +6150 ▼ 3.9 pp $10K Aug 11, 2026
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 10% +936 ▼ 0.2 pp $10K Nov 7, 2028
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Polymarket Presidential 5% +2074 ▲ 0.2 pp $9K Aug 11, 2026
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Polymarket Presidential 96% -2199 ▲ 0.5 pp $8K Aug 11, 2026
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 18% +470 ▼ 0.6 pp $8K Nov 7, 2028
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 22% +362 ▲ 0.2 pp $7K Nov 7, 2028
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket Presidential 7% +1438 flat $7K Dec 31, 2026
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $7K Nov 7, 2028

Presidential races elsewhere

Brazil, France, and everywhere else holding a presidential election. Kept separate so the 2028 boards above stay readable.

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

Reset

74 markets found

Market Platform Type Yes Odds 24h Volume Closes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%? Polymarket Presidential 3% +3604 ▲ 2.2 pp $1K Oct 4, 2026
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 flat $997 Oct 4, 2026
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Polymarket Presidential 9% +1024 ▲ 0.2 pp $982 Dec 31, 2026
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 2% +4155 ▲ 1.1 pp $943 Oct 24, 2027
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 77% -326 ▼ 0.5 pp $815 Nov 30, 2026
Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary? Polymarket Presidential 0% +28471 ▲ 0.3 pp $804 Aug 18, 2026
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 3% +3075 flat $785 Apr 30, 2027
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 flat $741 Apr 30, 2027
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? Polymarket Presidential 5% +1752 ▲ 4.7 pp $732 Oct 4, 2026
Will András Baka be the next President of Hungary? Polymarket Presidential 100% -28471 ▲ 0.1 pp $713 Aug 18, 2026
Will the Workers’ Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Polymarket Presidential 99% -7900 ▲ 0.1 pp $674 Aug 15, 2026
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil’s presidential runoff? Polymarket Presidential 2% +5456 ▼ 0.6 pp $661 Oct 4, 2026
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 1% +9424 flat $613 Oct 4, 2026
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 27% +277 ▲ 2.5 pp $601 Oct 4, 2026